So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.įor the last reported quarter, it was expected that SurModics would post earnings of $0.10 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.21, delivering a surprise of +110%. While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that SurModics will beat the consensus EPS estimate.ĭoes Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue? On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0%. How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for SurModics?įor SurModics, the Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss.
Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.Ī positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at). Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.
But as a growth investor I always like to check out companies that do have those features. Of course, you can do well (sometimes) buying stocks that are not growing earnings and do not have insiders buying shares. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Surmodics that you should be aware of. Don't forget that there may still be risks. So yes, I do think the stock is worth keeping an eye on. If that's not enough on its own, there is also the rather notable levels of insider ownership. One important encouraging feature of Surmodics is that it is growing profits. Story continues Does Surmodics Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?
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